Why VIX futures roll yield is SO important Recession Coming! Economics 101 (HOW BAD WILL IT GET?) VIX Futures Contango - Duration: 10:02. West Texas Intermediate crude futures on Monday fell to the biggest-ever discount to those for. Codependency is a term we've all heard, but probably don't know what it really means and why it's so dangerous. Contango is a term in commodity markets that means the futures curve is upward sloping. The real interest rate at the current inversion is the LOWEST in history. 3 things to know about Facebook's appeals court for controversial content. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish. A widening contango points. Coupled with shipping firm and owner bankruptcies, Contango is a great way to play grenade roulette. He founded Contango in 1999 by investing his entire life savings ($400K) into the business in order to raise the necessary equity. (The opposite of contango is "backwardation" which occurs whenever there is some supply disruption and near term prices spike. So why are they calling the bad guys T's? They are referring to the word "target. " "It is very bad for Russia, it is very bad for Saudi Arabia. Why oil speculators are turning to ships as floating storage. That's when traders put on contango spread trades that involve buying and storing crude to sell at a higher price later. Flag bad behaviour;. Much of that lost performance was due to the contango effect. Over the past 12 months, Contango Oil & Gas generated $87. CONTANGO Contango was a fee paid by a buyer to a seller when the buyer wished to defer settlement of the trade they had agreed. In fact, he says, the shape of the futures. The Majestic Hotel is one of the quintessential luxury boutique hotels in KL, a magnificent 82-year-old architectural treasure centrally located in heart of the city, opposite the striking old Moorish style railway station. Full access to the RBN Energy blog archive which includes any posting more than 5 days old is available only to RBN Backstage Pass™ subscribers. WHY!? o dindt do anything bad! now i have to play 5 mathes without points! NO WAY i prefer no play dota 2, my username is micki2593 i want to you leave me of this LOW Priority! 01-04-2014, 10:15 AM. Figure 8: 2015 Oil Curve Less Steep than in 2009. I hate to say it, but it’s become a popular notion to say that the market is in Contango in this case, Brent Crude. Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named "Best in the USA" by an independent global ratings group. " The most active contract for January 2015 delivery is down 2. This results in an upward sloping forward curve. Friday's strong but short-lived rally is the reason why Gartman believes crude may have bottomed. Many investors have given contango a bad name (and rightfully so) as it has the ability to destroy value in an underlying position with the blink of an eye. Bloomberg News reports that "China is setting a target to cover 90 days of net oil imports and may be looking to expand the reserve to as much as 180 days of supply. Again, because price must converge with the spot price as expiration draws near,. Best Credit Cards For Bad Credit The lack of storage in Cushing led to a significant drop in oil's price and why it went The futures market is considered to be in "contango" when the. That's when traders put on contango spread trades that involve buying and storing crude to sell at a higher price later. Contango is bad for certain ETFs because if you’re constantly paying a higher price every month to replace your expiring contract with the next month’s futures contract, you will lose money over time in relation to the movement in the spot price of the commodity. So, when you think of crude oil, and if you pull up a chart of what the curve looks like and the curve is basically, the current month which is month one, which is the main month and then you have the June. Contango is a term in commodity markets that means the futures curve is upward sloping. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. What Contango Is (and Why Every Investor Should Know About It) Whether you invest in ETFs or futures contracts, you can't afford to ignore the risk this phenomenon poses. (It takes TOO much intelligence to understand CONTANGO. When a market is in backwardation, they end up selling the more expensive front month and buying the less expensive next month, creating what's called a roll yield. That is, many of the markets now flush with enough supply to carry over into subsequent crop years can invert. A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. CNBC - Brian Sullivan. front month or spot trading at $100, and s 3 months out at $105 (currently contango between months in the CL contract is more like $0. NET Async CTP) is not allowed from within a lock statement. But some investors believe that as commodities become a more popular investing asset class , the increase in buyers (investors who are "long" a commodity ) will alter the "normal" state of the. Since the beginning of 2014, the JDST ETF is down 99. Confused in understanding concept of contango and backwardation by referring innumerable websites over the web? But the question still remains, How to understand contango and backwardation in simple language 3. This analysis also explains why the mid-term volatility index SPVXMTR which holds contracts that are 4 to 7 months out also declines in contango situations, even though 2/3rds of the contracts (M5 & M6) aren't rolled on a day to day basis. This results in an upward sloping forward curve. But they can pop up in any derivatives market and during turmoil driven by the spread of the coronavirus, volatility futures have, unusually and perhaps alarmingly, slipped from contango into. Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named "Best in the USA" by an independent global ratings group. Enjoy! IN ADDITION: If every single month going forward has more expensive contracts (i. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish. Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. Learn for free about math, art, computer programming, economics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, finance, history, and more. Given that, why not take the opposite side of the trade — Short DNO (DNO is the inverse of UNO), so when oil goes up, DNO goes down and you make money. (The opposite of contango is "backwardation" which occurs whenever there is some supply disruption and near term prices spike. If that were removed from the market what would have to happen to the price to make it rise to the point so as to encourage sufficient dis-investment, Old gold scrap to compensate for. This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today. Earlier in the week, further-dated contracts were trading at a discount to the spot price, a situation known as “backwardation. a market structure indicative of trading sentiment in favor of oil prices. Coupled with shipping firm and owner bankruptcies, Contango is a great way to play grenade roulette. There is a lot of confusion about the term "free market economics. Still, vegetarians or vegans occasionally find themselves inclined to sneak into McDonald's for a serving of the famous Golden Arches French fries every now and then. Crude oil is a commodity market, volatile and highly influenced by consumer and investor sentiments. This might make contango less reliable of an indicator of a market bottom in 2015 than it was in 2009. " These funds are designed to double or triple the performance. So why does anybody care about a risky spinoff with a roughly $10m market cap? Much of the interest in this name is based on the involvement of Mr. Contango refers to commodity prices that are higher in the future than today. The Fed research doesn't try to explain why this relationship holds and why it is happening but they are there to tell us that it exists and that the Fed is aware of it. This analysis also explains why the mid-term volatility index SPVXMTR which holds contracts that are 4 to 7 months out also declines in contango situations, even though 2/3rds of the contracts (M5 & M6) aren't rolled on a day to day basis. Why is this a problem?. people definitely put too much emphasis on spot priceoil stocks don't have the volatility they'd have if they traded off spot. Peak, who has an excellent reputation and a solid track record. but I still can't figure out just what it is or if it's a good thing or a bad. Crude's futures strip is being called a super contango because the price difference between the spot contract and contracts expiring next summer is so big. Contango is the technical term used when future prices are higher than the current market price, while backwardation means the future price is lower than the spot price. Way better. But the problem is steep contango. If you prefer options, look at them on XLE. Again, because price must converge with the spot price as expiration draws near,. 31 new things to try from home in May. As such, it pays to monitor global events and sentiment closely when. Contango and backwardation, while exotic sounding, are normal conditions in futures markets. org are unblocked. Because contango and normal backwardation market states can and do fluctuate, a fund that invests in one-month, three-month, six-month and 12-month contracts may be better able to weather contango. On the plus side, hedge funds and other money managers have reduced their bullish bets on crude oil, which is to say, they are not overextended on the upside in the way. Codependency is a term we've all heard, but probably don't know what it really means and why it's so dangerous. Investors and traders can maintain awareness of these market states by evaluating the spot price of an. Why Trump Is So Worried About Low Oil Prices—And Why He Should Be Investors should prepare for a coronavirus-induced 'vicious spiral' more than twice as bad as the financial. 8 percent overall. Why is USO/UCO a bad choice? In 2008-10 when the above contango has strongest, USO gained only 14% while the spot price jumped almost 80%. •Contango good for XIV •Backwardation good for VXX •Timing the Market •Contango means that the market is trending up and those periods are far longer than flat to trending down periods •Contango is good for SPY •Backwardation is bad for SPY. On Thursday, prices for further-dated futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) were higher than near-dated ones. That is, there is a positive spread between the spot price and futures contract price. This is what a codependent relationship is and why it's and unhealthy relationship. The bad times can't last forever, you say to yourself, and decide that oil prices are bound to rise again. It is why WTI's contango, i. The current contango structure in crude oil futures and most other commodity markets -- with future prices significantly above the spot market -- is providing a strong incentive to buy and store record quantities of raw materials, with most of the cost borne by retail investors in exchange-traded funds and institutional investors in long-only commodity indices. Contango refers to commodity prices that are higher in the future than today. I hate to say it, but it’s become a popular notion to say that the market is in Contango in this case, Brent Crude. Why It Suddenly Pays to Own the Natural Gas ETF For years, fund experts warned buy-and-hold investors against owning the United States Natural Fund (UNG), whose returns are tied to the futures. There is a lot of confusion about the term "free market economics. This is not a buy and hold investment. "There's more computing capability in my iPhone for $500 than there was that launched the moonshot. Because price must converge with the spot price upon expiration, contango implies that futures prices must fall over time. Natural Gas Is Already. Specially since you limit you losses if things turn bad. Many of these names aren't bad companies but rather. The code and idea is quite simple, the algorithm pulls daily settlement prices for VIX front month and second month futures and calculates the ratio of the Front Month/Second Month. Contango in CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures always knocks down VXX over time. Contango sounds like it might be some sort of exotic dance that you do against (con) someone, and maybe the definition of backwardation is what your partner does, just the opposite (indeed, it is, but we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves because we haven’t defined contango is yet). Why Oil Prices Are Tanking "The industry is in bad financial shape," he said. Contango is the technical term used when future prices are higher than the current market price, while backwardation means the future price is lower than the spot price. They can work given a VIX spike of a particular magnitude, but statistically don't. That is to say, you pay more for soybeans in July 2019 than you do in January 2019. The X axis contains the various contract expiration dates while the Y. Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price of the contract today. " The most active contract for January 2015 delivery is down 2. , future delivery costing more than immediate delivery, and the charge representing cost of carry to the holder. contango; that for a negative one, backwardation. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish. 5% Since Last Earnings Report? Most Read. Simply put, contango occurs in a market when futures prices for a commodity. A market is said to be in Contango (also known as forwardation) when the spot price is way lower than the forward price of a futures contract whereas a market is said to be in Backwardation when the spot price is higher than the forward price of the futures contract. In fact, he says, the shape of the futures. This latest estimate of 2020 global liquid fuels demand is 378,000 b/d less than was. Oil in Great Contango: Here's How to Play with Crude ETFs. Compare that to M1:M2 VIX futures at 86. Can you help? Answer. Moreover, a different oil market balance may also cause a return to an oil price contango (contango is a situation where the future price of a commodity is higher than the spot price). Coupled with shipping firm and owner bankruptcies, Contango is a great way to play grenade roulette. Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is above the expected future spot price. Flag bad behaviour;. Why Does Contango Matter? It has long been thought that the "natural" state of a commodities market is backwardation , which is the opposite of contango. But these ETFs are generally "synthetic" which m. 24%/day is explained here: “The Spectacular VIX Tailwind Trade. But if the government is going to support domestic oil companies, why not bet on the oil companies? So I traded GUSH a few times. These are bad for both commodities and stocks. To me your case why gold should be in contango is not very compelling. This fee was similar in character to the present meaning of Contango, i. The Fed research doesn't try to explain why this relationship holds and why it is happening but they are there to tell us that it exists and that the Fed is aware of it. Contango versus backwardation, there's a lot to consider and even more at stake. The fact that this is well above 1 indicates that its share price movements have shown sensitivity to overall market volatility. Contango is bad for certain ETFs because if you’re constantly paying a higher price every month to replace your expiring contract with the next month’s futures contract, you will lose money over time in relation to the movement in the spot price of the commodity. Contango is when the price of gold for future delivery is higher than the price for immediate delivery (spot). Here's why. The fund is constantly adjusting its positions on a daily basis, meaning it suffers from time-value decay known as contango. An await expression cannot be used in a synchronous function, in a query expression, in the catch or finally block of an exception handling statement, in the block of a lock statement, or in an unsafe context. One of the most frequent times that contango appears in the financial press is when VXX is discussed. Contango may seem daunting to those new to investing or unfamiliar with futures contracts, but it doesn't have to be. crude oil plunged on Friday to its lowest settlement price since early 2002 as it nears expiration, reflecting fears over a global glut and tight storage. Why Does Contango Matter? It has long been thought that the "natural" state of a commodities market is backwardation , which is the opposite of contango. But these ETFs are generally "synthetic" which m. Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price of the contract today. In the following, I give several reasons why, in my opinion, the opposite is true: Not contango, but backwardation in gold should be the norm. Google Mixed, Starbucks Tops & Ford Misses. This is why actually speculation is a good thing. The Daily Roll Does Not Reduce the ETP’s Value. Bloomberg News reports that "China is setting a target to cover 90 days of net oil imports and may be looking to expand the reserve to as much as 180 days of supply. One of the more pronounced was in 2012. On the other hand, TVIX does a decent job of matching the short term percentage moves of the VIX. Contango is also a very "normal" market, one which central bankers are incidentally doing their damndest to turn on its head but that's a discussion for another day after a stiff drink. Specially since you limit you losses if things turn bad. This is a really good question, and at the same time a suggestion to write today's article. If that were removed from the market what would have to happen to the price to make it rise to the point so as to encourage sufficient dis-investment, Old gold scrap to compensate for. , if the price of oil keeps going up GRADUALLY), you will most likely lose money EVEN IF oil is more than it was the day you got into USO. So why does anybody care about a risky spinoff with a roughly $10m market cap? Much of the interest in this name is based on the involvement of Mr. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish. However, many other factors influence the price of cattle and hog futures. NET Async CTP) is not allowed from within a lock statement. These reusable mugs & bottles are 100% spill proof and leak proof. Codependency is a term we've all heard, but probably don't know what it really means and why it's so dangerous. As such, it pays to monitor global events and sentiment closely when. Contango and Backwardation are the terms used to define the price of the futures curve for a commodity. "There is good deflation and bad inflation," Gartman says. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people. Here is the bad news. The current contango hovers around $2 per barrel, which is close to the average during the 2005-2014 period. But they can pop up in any derivatives market and during turmoil driven by the spread of the coronavirus, volatility futures have, unusually and perhaps alarmingly, slipped from contango into. Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. Difference between front and back month futures reached $7 on Friday, and USO is going down on days the futures go up. MarketWatch - Chris Matthews. Based on this history, investors should be aware that Contango Oil & Gas are likely to rise strongly in times of greed, but sell off in times of fear. These commodity ETF's have massive decay built in to them. Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price of the contract today. Why Contango And Backwardation Matter As we've discussed, contango is the normal state of the affairs in the VIX futures markets. (Click to enlarge) The current oil crisis is unlike the oil crisis of 2008-2009, as. Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the spot price of the contract today. As time goes by, forward price will converge to spot price: spot prices may rise, futures price may fall. Overall, with high inventories, growing supplies, more efficient vehicles, and slowing demand in emerging market economies, the market is not pricing a rebound in oil prices like it did during the 2009 low. So can some of more experienced traders please chime in. The flipside of contango is backwardation. Contango refers to a situation where the future spot price is below the current price , and. Now this is is a bad deal. You can also buy or sell options using VXX as the underlying (that's why it important at Terry's Tips). A historically bad crude oil tanker market struggles to find solid support. That is, there is a positive spread between the spot price and futures contract price. The table below shows the latest soybean futures prices for the different contract months. Oil Speculators: Bad or Good "If speculators had driven futures prices far above the level justified by fundamentals, we should have seen contango and/or large buildups in inventories. Crude Oil Futures in Super Contango. 5 Misperceptions About VXX VXX offers a good short-term trading vehicle to gain exposure to a potential spike in volatility. Contango may seem daunting to those new to investing or unfamiliar with futures contracts, but it doesn’t have to be. There's a problem that can arise at rollover time — contango. The buy and hold indices actually can't just buy and hold, they have to buy and roll, buy and roll, over and over. 8% of its revenue into FCF. " Here it is on a graph for you visually inclined folk: 5 Yr. Why Does Contango Matter? It has long been thought that the "natural" state of a commodities market is backwardation , which is the opposite of contango. However, many other factors influence the price of cattle and hog futures. CONTANGO Contango was a fee paid by a buyer to a seller when the buyer wished to defer settlement of the trade they had agreed. The potential problem, as with any futures contract, is contango —that is, when the futures price for something is higher than its current price. As time goes by, forward price will converge to spot price: spot prices may rise, futures price may fall. So why are they calling the bad guys T's? They are referring to the word "target.   They are buying futures when they are higher on the curve, at a more expensive price, and selling them when they have decayed to a lower price. Backwardation A market condition in which futures prices are lower in the distant delivery months than in the nearest delivery month. Because contango and normal backwardation market states can and do fluctuate, a fund that invests in one-month, three-month, six-month and 12-month contracts may be better able to weather contango. front month or spot trading at $100, and s 3 months out at $105 (currently contango between months in the CL contract is more like $0. Investor anticipation of prices, supply or demand, and their sentiments are some of the key components to understanding the fundamentals of the world crude oil market. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. By just plain shorting, I don't limit losses, that's why I keep the short small. Look back at our table above and take out the Central Bank sales at 549 tonnes in 2002. The article - a MUST read - is entitled: "ETFs Imperil Investors When Contango Conspires with Pre-Rolling. Friday's strong but short-lived rally is the reason why Gartman believes crude may have bottomed. This is the normal state of affairs for the options market happening 72.   Buying high and selling low—not a profitable practice. Investors and traders can maintain awareness of these market states by evaluating the spot price of an. The last time Brent Oil went into contango was November of 2013 and in January of 2014 the S&P corrected approximately 6%. If that were removed from the market what would have to happen to the price to make it rise to the point so as to encourage sufficient dis-investment, Old gold scrap to compensate for. This fee was similar in character to the present meaning of Contango, i. Thing is, VIX itself is. Watch Queue Queue. Contango may seem daunting to those new to investing or unfamiliar with futures contracts, but it doesn't have to be. A Historic Though Overblown Lesson in Contango and Oil Futures. Investor anticipation of prices, supply or demand, and their sentiments are some of the key components to understanding the fundamentals of the world crude oil market. Most of the time, the VIX futures are in a contango (the near future price is lower than the further), and VXX constantly diminishes its value by the negative daily "roll yield". However, when the oil market is stuck in an extreme contango, it gets a lot harder to use the fund to profit. 0 million b/d more than the 2019 average. Let's assume oil is in contango. Moneyish Why the professor who used Brock Turner as a textbook example of 'rape' has hope in the #MeToo era Published: Dec. Crude's futures strip is being called a super contango because the price difference between the spot contract and contracts expiring next summer is so big. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. This is not a buy and hold investment. That's when traders put on contango spread trades that involve buying and storing crude to sell at a higher price later. crude oil plunged on Friday to its lowest settlement price since early 2002 as it nears expiration, reflecting fears over a global glut and tight storage. We wouldn't think of merging good/bad, black/white, positive/negative and other opposites. (The opposite of contango is "backwardation" which occurs whenever there is some supply disruption and near term prices spike. Over the past 12 months, Contango Oil & Gas generated $87. Many of these names aren't bad companies but rather. VXX is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) which trades very much like any stock. Backwardation and Contango are used to define the shape and structure of a. 3 million outstanding Lots of options: none Lots of PUD's ( ~ 2%) Lots of employees: 10 Lots of wells - 12 offshore Lots of landowners - 2 Lots of regulators - 4 Winner's curse We were the sole bidder at prev ious 4 offshore lease sales At most recent lease sale, so le bidder on 5 of our 6 leases. In fact, he says, the shape of the futures. The June contract may be in a Contango, but the July Contract may not. Question: I keep hearing the term "contango" in discussions about the commodities markets, but I still can't figure out just what it is or if it's a good thing or a bad thing. To understand why contango matters, it's important to know how futures trading typically works. Much of that lost performance was due to the contango effect. At this time, CVS has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum is doing a lot better with a C. But the problem is steep contango. This is what a codependent relationship is and why it's and unhealthy relationship. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. Why is the gold forward rate positive? Because gold is in contango. "Tango" means 'T' in the military phonetic alphabet. In other words, if you want to maintain a futures position that looks one month out, you buy futures contracts for the next month that expire in 30 days. A market is said to be in Contango (also known as forwardation) when the spot price is way lower than the forward price of a futures contract whereas a market is said to be in Backwardation when the spot price is higher than the forward price of the futures contract. 30 per pound to buy the copper metal and simultaneously got $3. Tired by searching meaning of contango and backwardation over the internet? 2. Why is USO/UCO a bad choice? In 2008-10 when the above contango has strongest, USO gained only 14% while the spot price jumped almost 80%. The forward curve is just a prediction of what the future delivery of commodities will be. Why Does Contango Matter? It has long been thought that the "natural" state of a commodities market is backwardation , which is the opposite of contango. If you have oil to sell and you will be getting more money now for a late delivery than for an early delivery, oil will be preserved for the years to come. The current contango structure in crude oil futures and most other commodity markets -- with future prices significantly above the spot market -- is providing a strong incentive to buy and store record quantities of raw materials, with most of the cost borne by retail investors in exchange-traded funds and institutional investors in long-only commodity indices. I hate to say it, but it’s become a popular notion to say that the market is in Contango in this case, Brent Crude. The reason that contango is bad for certain ETFs is that if you're constantly paying higher prices every single month to replace your expiring contract with the next month's futures contract, you. In the following, I give several reasons why, in my opinion, the opposite is true: Not contango, but backwardation in gold should be the norm. "There is good deflation and bad inflation," Gartman says. Contango and Roll Decay. The current price slump, that progressively deepened over the course of March, has resulted in a massive contango - i. The VXX is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) from Barclays that supposedly tracks Volatility Index (VIX) futures. This is what you need to know to properly trade the product. Since the beginning of 2014, the JDST ETF is down 99. An await expression cannot be used in a synchronous function, in a query expression, in the catch or finally block of an exception handling statement, in the block of a lock statement, or in an unsafe context. Volatility Futures aren't always in contango. Many investors have given contango a bad name (and rightfully so) as it has the ability to destroy value in an underlying position with the blink of an eye. contango; that for a negative one, backwardation. How this works and why it comes out to 0. Contango and backwardation are terms often used within commodity circles. A historically bad crude oil tanker market struggles to find solid support. Meat futures tend to become more volatile as grilling season approaches each year. So, month 2 is more costly than month 1, and month 3 is more costly than month 2. Contango usually occurs when an asset price is expected to rise over time. When the futures are in contango it’s bad news for the price of the ETP’s holding them. i knew oil was in contango but not that much. Contango sounds like it might be some sort of exotic dance that you do against (con) someone, and maybe the definition of backwardation is what your partner does, just the opposite (indeed, it is, but we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves because we haven’t defined contango is yet). "There is good deflation and bad inflation," Gartman says. 3 million outstanding Lots of options: none Lots of PUD's ( ~ 2%) Lots of employees: 10 Lots of wells - 12 offshore Lots of landowners - 2 Lots of regulators - 4 Winner's curse We were the sole bidder at prev ious 4 offshore lease sales At most recent lease sale, so le bidder on 5 of our 6 leases. But if they're serious about living meat-free, they should stop. The current contango structure in crude oil futures and most other commodity markets -- with future prices significantly above the spot market -- is providing a strong incentive to buy and store record quantities of raw materials, with most of the cost borne by retail investors in exchange-traded funds and institutional investors in long-only commodity indices. Oil Speculators: Bad or Good "If speculators had driven futures prices far above the level justified by fundamentals, we should have seen contango and/or large buildups in inventories. Even though most of the time VIX futures are in contango, empirically backwardation periods are of higher strength than contango periods as you can see here. Looking at the wide contango, they know the time to start buying is now. Join the conversation. The market condition opposite to backwardation is called "contango. The buy and hold indices actually can't just buy and hold, they have to buy and roll, buy and roll, over and over. Unless one has good info n deep pockets. Therefore tango can refer to many things, not just people. The basis is limited on the upside by the. Backwardation rarely occurs in precious metals markets; the opposite condition - contango - usually dominates the futures curve, as traders must factor in the cost of storage and insurance for deliverable stocks. Contigo makes 100% BPA-free spill proof travel mugs & water bottles. 8 percent overall. Related: Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin Earlier in the week, further-dated contracts were trading at a discount to the spot price, a situation known as "backwardation. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish If you're seeing this message, it means we're having trouble loading external resources on our website.   Buying high and selling low—not a profitable practice. To look at backwardation and contango over time for this analysis, the price for the front-month (or first-month) futures contract is compared to the price for the contract five months in the future. Home » Library » Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example When it comes to commodity investing and trading, contango is a dirty word. You can also buy or sell options using VXX as the underlying (that's why it important at Terry's Tips). This is the gold basis, the pretty pictures we show every week in our Report. But these ETFs are generally "synthetic" which m. Why is the gold forward rate positive? Because gold is in contango. You can also buy or sell options using VXX as the underlying (that’s why it important at Terry’s Tips). There is a lot of confusion about the term "free market economics. (Click to enlarge) The current oil crisis is unlike the oil crisis of 2008-2009, as. 6% of trading days in contango, with the longest duration of backwardation being only 34 days. It's like regular contango, but special (like you!). Investor anticipation of prices, supply or demand, and their sentiments are some of the key components to understanding the fundamentals of the world crude oil market. Investors and traders can maintain awareness of these market states by evaluating the spot price of an. " Contango returned Wednesday and for a short period of time Thursday, Kraken futures dated a month out were trading at a 7. Backwardation In Keynesian economics, a theory stating that the. Why Does SVXY Share Price Rise? Over time, SVXY has a history of rising due to a process that few traders understand, called contango. Why It Suddenly Pays to Own the Natural Gas ETF For years, fund experts warned buy-and-hold investors against owning the United States Natural Fund (UNG), whose returns are tied to the futures. Overview Moreover, a different oil market balance may also cause a return to an oil price contango (contango is a situation where the future price of a commodity is higher than the spot price). Volatility futures aren't always in contango. Commodity analysts call it "contango" when oil for delivery in the future costs more than oil for immediate delivery. This comparison shows a number of factors: Contango extremes tend to coincide with VIX and S&P 500 highs/lows (see most recent contango low - dashed green line). The time before that was February of 2011 and in March of 2011 the S&P corrected 7. Contango and backwardation are used most often in the context of futures markets for commodities.   There are different ways to measure backwardation. How this works and why it comes out to 0. All I can figure is that the sellers of VIX futures contracts demand high "prices" (because the seller is the holder of the short position and makes money when the price falls), and since there are willing buyers, namely ETNs and ETFs that are trying to track the S&P 500 VIX SHORT-TERM. You can buy (or sell) shares in it, just like you can IBM. VXX is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) which trades very much like any stock. False The lower bound of a European put on a non-dividend paying stock is lower than the intrinsic value of an American put. Oil in Great Contango: Here's How to Play with Crude ETFs. As time goes by, forward price will converge to spot price: spot prices may rise, futures price may fall. But if they're serious about living meat-free, they should stop. So, breakdown what a contango is and why this is playing such a huge factor in what's going on with storage? Harris Kupperman: Yeah, sure. Contango and Backwardation give us the relationship of the forward prove (price in the future market) and spot price (current price). One of the most frequent times that contango appears in the financial press is when VXX is discussed. Confused in understanding concept of contango and backwardation by referring innumerable websites over the web? But the question still remains, How to understand contango and backwardation in simple language 3. If this is the case, then the fact that gold has been in contango for essentially all of the last 25 years strongly suggests central bank interference with the gold market. Crude's futures strip is being called a super contango because the price difference between the spot contract and contracts expiring next summer is so big. Contango and backwardation, while exotic sounding, are normal conditions in futures markets. The lumber market during this time was in contango, and thus each successive contract was more expensive than the preceding one. The real interest rate at the current inversion is the LOWEST in history. Contango is when front-month contracts trade at a discount to contracts further out. But if the government is going to support domestic oil companies, why not bet on the oil companies? So I traded GUSH a few times. Untangling Contango Here's why commodities investors need to know this term and its counterpart, backwardation. Chicago Boyz occasionally accepts direct paid advertising for goods or services that in the opinion of Chicago Boyz management would benefit the readers of this blog. Why are we talking about "contango" Now that we know what "contango" is, why are people talking about it? The word on the street is that the contango in the oil market is decreasing and according to media outlets such as Bloomberg , "the fading contango is the clearest sign of recovery. The reason that contango is bad for certain ETFs is that if you're constantly paying higher prices every single month to replace your expiring contract with the next month's futures contract, you. Why? For the same reason Contango is bad for them. Opinion: Hollywood couldn't script a plotline like what's happening in oil right now. That is perhaps why "super contango", a situation when that really makes storing surplus crude worthwhile, has actually been quite slow coming this time around. For the same reason Contango is bad for them. Unless one has good info n deep pockets. Backwardation In Keynesian economics, a theory stating that the. At this time, CVS has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum is doing a lot better with a C. Backwardation rarely occurs in precious metals markets; the opposite condition - contango - usually dominates the futures curve, as traders must factor in the cost of storage and insurance for deliverable stocks. Thinking about why a severe contango could be bearish If you're seeing this message, it means we're having trouble loading external resources on our website. How this works and why it comes out to 0. Contango Oil & Gas Company (NYSEAMERICAN: MCF) is a prime example. "Tango" means 'T' in the military phonetic alphabet. These reusable mugs & bottles are 100% spill proof and leak proof. And this is how contango fucks your ass in USO. 9 million cash while it booked net income of $68. This results in an upward sloping forward curve. Look back at our table above and take out the Central Bank sales at 549 tonnes in 2002. This means even if your timing was as bad as possible, you only had to wait 10 month to make money, instead of 21 months. The opportunities provided by the steep contango has helped push oil inventory to historic highs - and inventory is still rising (and could rise a little further) because it takes a while before. Contango refers to a situation where distant futures prices for a particular commodity start to run well ahead of near futures prices. 8 percent overall. Thus, in a contango, the front month futures contracts are usually higher than the distant months. First one Shawn, pressures on you. Voiceover: Let's do a quick review of contango and backwardation because they really are opposites of each other, but they're used in different context, sometimes with the exact right meaning, sometimes with the not so right meaning, so let's clarify what we're talking about. Crude Oil Futures in Super Contango. Dollar Is Rising And Why That's Bad To get an idea of the true state of the U. This results in an upward sloping forward curve. a situation known as contango. That's bad news if you're long May futures, because if you don't close out your position by the end of trading Tuesday, you have just a few days to let the seller know how you're going to. Bloomberg News reports that "China is setting a target to cover 90 days of net oil imports and may be looking to expand the reserve to as much as 180 days of supply. — Grim Contango (@moonpolysoft) And that's not because Java is bad—it's just different. Strong persistent backwardation accompanied with increasing prices creates high VXX prices in a short period of time as evidenced by he graph available in this post: the great recession. MarketWatch - Chris Matthews. From MSDN:. Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is above the expected future spot price. Untangling Contango Here's why commodities investors need to know this term and its counterpart, backwardation. The Fund seeks total return similar to or in excess of the long-term spot price of WTI, before fees and expenses, over a full market cycle by attempting to substantially eliminate the effects of a condition in futures markets known as Contango. In any case Quasimodo was not an infant when he was adopted. Most of the time, the VIX futures are in a contango (the near future price is lower than the further), and VXX constantly diminishes its value by the negative daily "roll yield". "There's more computing capability in my iPhone for $500 than there was that launched the moonshot.   Buying high and selling low—not a profitable practice. org are unblocked. Twitter; They also explain why in a contango market the products shouldn't necessarily remove much more inventory from market than would. Rapidly rising crude inventories at Cushing (up 3MMBbl last week according to the Energy Information Administration - EIA) suggest it's a popular strategy. An await expression cannot be used in a synchronous function, in a query expression, in the catch or finally block of an exception handling statement, in the block of a lock statement, or in an unsafe context. Why Does Contango Matter? It has long been thought that the "natural" state of a commodities market is backwardation , which is the opposite of contango. We've all heard the old saw: Contango is a bad time to buy commodities futures. Google Mixed, Starbucks Tops & Ford Misses. It may help to think of the forward as "chasing the spot" over time. By just plain shorting, I don't limit losses, that's why I keep the short small. 35 by selling a future that matures 6 months later. Moneyish Why the professor who used Brock Turner as a textbook example of 'rape' has hope in the #MeToo era Published: Dec. This results in an upward sloping forward curve. it's anything you are wanting to destroy. Home » Library » Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example Understanding Contango: Natural Gas Example When it comes to commodity investing and trading, contango is a dirty word. Much of that lost performance was due to the contango effect. Still, vegetarians or vegans occasionally find themselves inclined to sneak into McDonald's for a serving of the famous Golden Arches French fries every now and then. Watch Queue Queue Queue. Unless one has good info n deep pockets. The article defines the term "contango," shares real (shocking) experiences, and explains why these funds are not ideal for long-term investing due to the rollover effect of commodity futures. Annualized, that's a 330% or 440% annualized head wind. Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. Best Credit Cards For Bad Credit The lack of storage in Cushing led to a significant drop in oil's price and why it went The futures market is considered to be in "contango" when the. front month or spot trading at $100, and s 3 months out at $105 (currently contango between months in the CL contract is more like $0. The Fund seeks total return similar to or in excess of the long-term spot price of WTI, before fees and expenses, over a full market cycle by attempting to substantially eliminate the effects of a condition in futures markets known as Contango. We get so much more out of our computer for $1,500 than you ever used to get out of it for $1,500," Gartman says. PS: Okay, let's go to some of the investor questions, we got here already. We wouldn't think of merging good/bad, black/white, positive/negative and other opposites. For example, when oil prices hit bottom in late 2008 and early 2009, the market was in a steep contango (or super-contango) with spreads between some of the monthly contracts exceeding $1. Business Insider. This may occur when the costs of storing the product until eventual delivery are effectively subtracted from the price today. And all of the contango issues work in your favor. Finally, because the VIX has a negative correlation with the market in bad times, and little correlation in good times, in a CAPM world, it has a negative beta in the bad state of the world, and a near 0 beta in the good state of the world. USCF Contango-Killer Natural Gas Fund (No K-1). One of the biggest misconceptions about the U. Twitter; They also explain why in a contango market the products shouldn't necessarily remove much more inventory from market than would. Contango is when the price of gold for future delivery is higher than the price for immediate delivery (spot). I hate to say it, but it’s become a popular notion to say that the market is in Contango in this case, Brent Crude. In any case Quasimodo was not an infant when he was adopted. So why does anybody care about a risky spinoff with a roughly $10m market cap? Much of the interest in this name is based on the involvement of Mr. The reason that contango is bad for certain ETFs is that if you're constantly paying higher prices every single month to replace your expiring contract with the next month's futures contract, you. Contango is the technical term used when future prices are higher than the current market price, while backwardation means the future price is lower than the spot price. org are unblocked. CONTANGO Contango was a fee paid by a buyer to a seller when the buyer wished to defer settlement of the trade they had agreed. Don't worry!. "Tango" means 'T' in the military phonetic alphabet. Contango and Backwardation are the terms used to define the price of the futures curve for a commodity. Oil Speculators: Bad or Good "If speculators had driven futures prices far above the level justified by fundamentals, we should have seen contango and/or large buildups in inventories. The last time Brent Oil went into contango was November of 2013 and in January of 2014 the S&P corrected approximately 6%. If you have oil to sell and you will be getting more money now for a late delivery than for an early delivery, oil will be preserved for the years to come. The article - a MUST read - is entitled: "ETFs Imperil Investors When Contango Conspires with Pre-Rolling. These commodity ETF’s have massive decay built in to them. To me your case why gold should be in contango is not very compelling. The lumber market during this time was in contango, and thus each successive contract was more expensive than the preceding one. Join the conversation. Looking at the wide contango, they know the time to start buying is now. Therefore tango can refer to many things, not just people. A market is said to be in Contango (also known as forwardation) when the spot price is way lower than the forward price of a futures contract whereas a market is said to be in Backwardation when the spot price is higher than the forward price of the futures contract. But these ETFs are generally "synthetic" which m. Worrying to say the least. Friday's strong but short-lived rally is the reason why Gartman believes crude may have bottomed. When a market is in backwardation, they end up selling the more expensive front month and buying the less expensive next month, creating what’s called a roll yield. Confused in understanding concept of contango and backwardation by referring innumerable websites over the web? But the question still remains, How to understand contango and backwardation in simple language 3. Comment: Because of contango, I regard the following trades as "generally bad ideas": VXX/UVXY covered calls or SVXY covered puts (contango drift); VXX/UVXY short put verticals or SVXY short call verts (again, contango); any nondirectional trade (again -- you guessed it -- contango). The 2 month contango seems to be narrowing slightly recently, but May-09 is still 8% higher than Mar-09 which will be bad for LOIL if it stays like that when rollover takes place in 6 weeks time. Dollar Is Rising And Why That's Bad To get an idea of the true state of the U. The difference between spot and future prices is mostly based on carry (financing + storage) and convenience yield plus some element of speculation. Also the VIX futures are frequently in contango as people overestimate the likely-hood of extreme outcomes, hence VXX is a bad long term buy and hold candidate. , future delivery costing more than immediate delivery, and the charge representing cost of carry to the holder. Why are we talking about "contango" Now that we know what "contango" is, why are people talking about it? The word on the street is that the contango in the oil market is decreasing and according to media outlets such as Bloomberg , "the fading contango is the clearest sign of recovery. Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price. " As oil prices continue to break records, people grow more restless and the politicians become more desperate to find a target. But I need some help to reduce volatility and dd. In addition to blog archive access, RBN Backstage Pass™ resources. You can buy (or sell) shares in it, just like you can IBM. So, if something of a scene happens like this, you have an offset. An oil price contango is likely to indicate an increased demand for. Wild Oil Market Sees Record Contango That's bad news if you're long May futures, because if you don't close out your position by the end of trading Tuesday, you have just a few days to. But because the futures are in contango about 87% of the time, then shorting ETPs that roll their positions into steep contango keeps the wind at your back when contango is present. , storage, financing and convenience fees, exceeds the difference between the forward and spot price. Backwardation starts when the cost of carry - i. If you're behind a web filter, please make sure that the domains *. Given that the fund’s contracts expire every month. The average contango in the weekly is roughly 1% per week which over an entire month would be roughly what the monthly contango is. Now that the ETF universe has rapidly expanded and there. Incorporated as a not-for-profit foundation in 1971, and headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the Forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests. VXX is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) which trades very much like any stock. The reason that contango is bad for certain ETFs is that if you're constantly paying higher prices every single month to replace your expiring contract with the next month's futures contract, you'll slowly but surely lose money in relation to the movement in the spot price of the commodity. It's like regular contango, but special (like you!). Looking at the wide contango, they know the time to start buying is now. Strong persistent backwardation accompanied with increasing prices creates high VXX prices in a short period of time as evidenced by he graph available in this post: the great recession. However, when the oil market is stuck in an extreme contango, it gets a lot harder to use the fund to profit. But because the futures are in contango about 87% of the time, then shorting ETPs that roll their positions into steep contango keeps the wind at your back when contango is present. Business Insider. " With an uncanny mix of mordant humor and compassion, Lindsay Hill's fourth full-length book of poems exposes the bad trades our culture thrives on. For the same reason Contango is bad for them. PS: Okay, let's go to some of the investor questions, we got here already. Contango tells us the world is running out of places to store crude oil Contango is a condition where prices for deferred delivery are higher than for nearby delivery. The table below shows the latest soybean futures prices for the different contract months. The good news is that this situation is reversible. USCF Contango-Killer Natural Gas Fund (No K-1). front month or spot trading at $100, and s 3 months out at $105 (currently contango between months in the CL contract is more like $0. Oil Fund ETF offers exposure to the "spot" or cash price of oil. Let's assume oil is in contango. " Using tango is just a cute way of saying targets - something objective rather than normative. The article defines contango, shares real (shocking) experiences, and explains why these funds are not ideal for long-term investing due to the roll-over effect of commodity futures. This is what a codependent relationship is and why it's and unhealthy relationship. The flipside of contango is backwardation. To access the remainder of Save It for Later - Crude Market Vaporizes; Contango and Storage Plays Take Center Stage you must be logged as a RBN Backstage Pass™ subscriber. The Daily Roll Does Not Reduce the ETP’s Value. What we see sometimes is that when contango flips to backwardation, it is usually already bad or going to get bad for the market. Contango Versus Normal Backwardation The red line in Figure 1, on the other hand, depicts an inverted market. MarketWatch - Chris Matthews. These terms refer to the shape of the futures curve of a commodity such as gold, silver, wheat or crude oil. However, many other factors influence the price of cattle and hog futures. Contango and backwardation, while exotic sounding, are normal conditions in futures markets. Therefore tango can refer to many things, not just people. For example, if an airline thinks the price of oil will increase to a point where it may have a serious dent to its bottom line, it might opt to buy oil at an agreed price - that is greater than. 3 million outstanding Lots of options: none Lots of PUD's ( ~ 2%) Lots of employees: 10 Lots of wells - 12 offshore Lots of landowners - 2 Lots of regulators - 4 Winner's curse We were the sole bidder at prev ious 4 offshore lease sales At most recent lease sale, so le bidder on 5 of our 6 leases. The definitions are as follows: Contango is when the futures price is above the expected future spot price. In the February 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U. Figure 1 illustrates this example. Again, because price must converge with the spot price as expiration draws near,. Natural Gas Is Already. In MG's contango, the forward started to chase the spot down - so the forward price is dropping. I agree that contango will not exceed the market price for storage. 3 percent premium on an. Bitcoin futures are showing signs the market is more optimistic on the cryptocurrency. The potential problem, as with any futures contract, is contango —that is, when the futures price for something is higher than its current price. If this is the case, then the fact that gold has been in contango for essentially all of the last 25 years strongly suggests central bank interference with the gold market. Backwardation rarely occurs in precious metals markets; the opposite condition - contango - usually dominates the futures curve, as traders must factor in the cost of storage and insurance for deliverable stocks. 35 by selling a future that matures 6 months later. The fact that this is well above 1 indicates that its share price movements have shown sensitivity to overall market volatility. Since the beginning of 2014, the JDST ETF is down 99. The term structure, known as contango, is usually taken as a bullish signal. Please direct any inquiries to and that this is a rare event called a contango. Just like labor economics is not a matter of standing up for working class interests, but a study of how labor markets work. Can you help? Answer. The roll yield, in turn, depends on whether the futures market is in contango or backwardation. If you have another post on why gold should be in contango please share. 8 percent overall. Join the conversation. And all of the contango issues work in your favor. The Fed research doesn't try to explain why this relationship holds and why it is happening but they are there to tell us that it exists and that the Fed is aware of it. Tangled up in contango If you invest in commodities using futures, you have to deal with rolling over contracts as they expire. Oil Fund ETF offers exposure to the "spot" or cash price of oil. The Fund seeks total return similar to or in excess of the long-term spot price of WTI, before fees and expenses, over a full market cycle by attempting to substantially eliminate the effects of a condition in futures markets known as Contango. 6% of trading days in contango, with the longest duration of backwardation being only 34 days. Why Is Integer (ITGR) Up 5. On the year, VXX is down 29. The market condition opposite to backwardation is called "contango. As time goes by, forward price will converge to spot price: spot prices may rise, futures price may fall. Many investors have given contango a bad name (and rightfully so) as it has the ability to destroy value in an underlying position with the blink of an eye. "Normally Enemed tries to source fuel when the market is in backwardation, which means that the price in the future is lower than the spot price. This situation usually arises when a commodity that normally experiences contango faces a positive demand or negative supply shock.   Most market participants like to look to the relationship between the first and second. In the following, I give several reasons why, in my opinion, the opposite is true: Not contango, but backwardation in gold should be the norm. This is the gold basis, the pretty pictures we show every week in our Report. But also, the VIX doesn't often rally in a sustained fashion, but rather tends to spike. Commodity ETFs are a Bad Long Term Bet - Duh. The opposite of contango. Thing is, VIX itself is. To me your case why gold should be in contango is not very compelling. From MSDN:. That is perhaps why "super contango", a situation when that really makes storing surplus crude worthwhile, has actually been quite slow coming this time around. We've all heard the old saw: Contango is a bad time to buy commodities futures. Crude Oil Futures in Super Contango. Given that, why not take the opposite side of the trade — Short DNO (DNO is the inverse of UNO), so when oil goes up, DNO goes down and you make money. The current contango hovers around $2 per barrel, which is close to the average during the 2005-2014 period. Why is this a problem?. A Historic Though Overblown Lesson in Contango and Oil Futures. The fact that this is well above 1 indicates that its share price movements have shown sensitivity to overall market volatility. 30 per pound to buy the copper metal and simultaneously got $3. In the event that a futures curve is in contan. The basis is limited on the upside by the. 7 reasons to avoid commodities and why they're wrong. Flag bad behaviour;. These are bad for both commodities and stocks. These terms refer to the shape of the futures curve of a commodity such as gold, silver, wheat or crude oil. They can work given a VIX spike of a particular magnitude, but statistically don't. not unless you like giving away money to bad fund managers selling flawed products. High volatility is bad for option holders because it increases the probability that the option will expire out-of-the-money. This is why the gaps on the rolls are usually up-gaps and not down. Each succeeding futures month is more expensive and this means that S&P investors are expecting volatility to decline and the S&P 500 index to climb over time. it's anything you are wanting to destroy. 7 reasons to avoid commodities and why they're wrong. (Click to enlarge) The current oil crisis is unlike the oil crisis of 2008-2009, as. Also the VIX futures are frequently in contango as people overestimate the likely-hood of extreme outcomes, hence VXX is a bad long term buy and hold candidate. For instance, if VIX is at 15 today, and a one-month VIX futures contract is trading at 16, then the VIX futures market is in contango. 8 percent overall. VTS - Brent Osachoff 46,341 views. Front month future expires in 11 days and a few days back contango was 4$, then 5$, now it is already 6$. This means even if your timing was as bad as possible, you only had to wait 10 month to make money, instead of 21 months. The magnitude of the impact of these market traits on ETC returns should not be underestimated. So can some of more experienced traders please chime in.   You will hear pundits say we are in backwardation whenever VIX closes higher than the front month future. MarketWatch - Chris Matthews. VXX is an ETN (Exchange Traded Note) which trades very much like any stock. Of course, a contango reflects bad news for oil prices and for petro-producers in the short term (or for however long it takes the structural imbalance between supply and demand to correct itself). There's a problem that can arise at rollover time — contango. The reason that contango is bad for certain ETFs is that if you're constantly paying higher prices every single month to replace your expiring contract with the next month's futures contract, you. Oil Speculators: Bad or Good "If speculators had driven futures prices far above the level justified by fundamentals, we should have seen contango and/or large buildups in inventories. Why you need to beware esoteric ETFs: How betting on the VIX, leveraging your money, shorting, and contango can dent your wealth. Why then should BW/CT be merged? Sure, one could say that negative contango equals backwardation and vice versa just as "cold" could be substituded by "less warm" or something similar,, meaning we actually only need one notion. In fact, he says, the shape of the futures. I agree that contango will not exceed the market price for storage. The 2 month contango seems to be narrowing slightly recently, but May-09 is still 8% higher than Mar-09 which will be bad for LOIL if it stays like that when rollover takes place in 6 weeks time. For the same reason Contango is bad for them. The code and idea is quite simple, the algorithm pulls daily settlement prices for VIX front month and second month futures and calculates the ratio of the Front Month/Second Month.
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